Friday, September 2, 2011

Box Office Forecaster 09/02/11

So the Summer movie season is officially over. There was a couple of obvious hits like the last Harry Potter movie and some unexpected bombs like "Cowboys & Aliens".  Here are the ten highest grossing movies this summer according to Box Office Mojo (all numbers are based on North American box office returns).

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two - $372 million
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $349 million
3. The Hangover Part II - $254 million
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $240 million
5. Cars 2 - $187 million
6. Thor - $181 million
7. Captain America: The First Avenger - $169 million
8. Bridesmaids - $168 million
9. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $164 million
10. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $152 million

This week is officially the dump week for movies as there's three new movies that probably won't set the box office on fire. It will be interesting to see whether "The Help" will be able to hang onto first place at the box office for the third week in a row.

Weekend Prediction - $4.5m
Gross to Date (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $5m
Gross to Date - $152m (Week 5)

Weekend Prediction - $6m
Gross to Date - (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $10.5m
Gross to Date - $104m (Week 4)

Weekend Prediction - $15m
Gross to Date (Week 1)

Avoid Like the Plague
Last week's pick, "Colombiana" ended up having a decent weekend with a second place $10.4 million opening. As I said last week, I don't think the movie looked bad but it was that PG-13 rating for an action movie that made me put the brakes on this one. The same can be said with this week's pick "Shark Night 3D". The big difference is that "Colombiana" looked decent while this one looks awful. When I saw the previews for this the first thing that I thought of was last year's "Piranha 3D" which was a fun trashy flick. It was bloody with a ton of gore and some great gratuitous nudity. I'm willing to bet this isn't nearly as fun and for those looking for some gore are going to be disappointed with the PG-13 rating. Plus, after a summer where every other movie was released in 3D I think it's safe to say that most movie goers are tired of having to pay extra for 3D movies.

Best Bet
This week's best bet could have just as easily been put in the "Plague" category. The reason I have it here is because I'm a huge fan of the "found footage" movies like "The Blair Witch Project" and "Cloverfield". This movie has an interesting premise as it shows footage of a top secret space mission that obviously goes wrong. The unfortunate part about this movie had 5 previous release dates going all the way back to March 4, 2011. This doesn't bode well for the film which is too bad because it looks like it has some good scares. I also have to note that this does have a PG-13 rating which is ok for a movie like this. Don't expect to see any gory "Alien" like scenes but this should still deliver some good scares if you're looking for a good suspense film.

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