Friday, August 26, 2011

Box Office Forecaster - 08/26/11

For once I was glad to be off on my box office predictions last weekend. I had predicted “Spy Kids 4” triumphantly beating the competition last weekend with $25 million gross. I was off by over $10 million as it ended up grossing just under $12 million and finished in third place behind “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” and “The Help”.

“The Help” actually pulled the rare feat of opening in second place and finishing in first place the next weekend. As I mentioned last week I thought that since it didn’t open to huge numbers it would have legs and stick around during the dog days of summer.  Luckily for the film, it only dropped 23% from the previous weekend. That’s pretty good considering most big movies drop anywhere from 55%-60% in their second weekend out. Even the latest Harry Potter movies dropped over 60% in its second weekend.

I’ve noticed a disturbing/good trend with my “Avoid Like the Plague” pick. For the last two weeks the movie that I said to avoid has tanked and pulled in only $5 million. Last week’s casualty was the Anne Hathaway stinker “One Day”. Hopefully this streak continues until the new Twilight movie comes out later this year. Check out below for my picks for the top movies this weekend and who gets the Anti-Social Report kiss of death this week.

Weekend Prediction - $6.7m
Gross to Date - $14.9m (Week 2)

Weekend Prediction - $7m
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $8.4m
Gross to Date - $138.4m (Week 4)

Weekend Prediction - $10m
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $13m
Gross to Date – $79.6m (Week 3)

Avoid like the Plague
There really isn’t a huge stinker that comes out this week, there isn’t a Glee movie or anything with Anne Hathaway talking with a bad accent. I was torn and decided to go with the film that continues one of the most disturbing trends in the motion picture industry today. The trend; the PG-13 action movie. I think this trend started in 2007 when “Live Free or Die Hard” came out. I remember hearing about Die Hard 4 and was so pumped up to see it until I saw the PG-13 logo. I was immediately turned off as I knew this meant digital blood and no “yippe-kay-ay-aye mother fucker”. The sad part was that I was right and I can’t help but feel the same with this movie. I remember seeing this movie advertised on tv and thought how it looked like a gritty revenge tale. Plus Zoe Saldana is in it who in my opinion is the new Sam Jackson only because she stars in like 20 movies a year. But the movie looks ok; however, as a lover of violent rated R movies, I can’t help but wonder if this is going to disappoint.

Best Bet
Comedies have had a hard time at the box office this summer. Lately “The Change Up” and “30 Minutes or Less” haven’t fared as well. It might not help that they didn’t get great reviews so hopefully it bodes well for “Our Idiot Brother” that it’s been getting great reviews so far. I don’t think this movie will light the box office on fire but that’s ok, some of the best comedies (Office Space) take a while to find their audience. Paul Rudd is great in any comedy and this one has a promising trailer that shows some very funny scenes and highlights a great supporting cast which includes Elizabeth Banks, Adam Scott, Rashida Jones, Zooey Deschanel, Emily Mortimer, and Steve Coogan.

What are you seeing this weekend?

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