Friday, September 16, 2011

Box Office Forecaster - 09/16/11

“Contagion” finally knocked off the ladies of “The Help” last weekend. After being the top movie for three weeks in a row the all-star germ thriller took the top spot last weekend with $22.4 million. It probably helped their total that they were also playing on select IMAX screens. I saw the movie (I’d give it a B+) and for the life of me can’t figure out why anybody would pay extra money to see it on an IMAX screen.

The rest of the box office last weekend was relatively quiet with “Warrior” grossing a disappointing $5.2million which was good enough for third place. “Warrior” could end up being like the “The Help” where positive reviews and solid word of mouth recommendations could help it hang on longer at the box office. I don’t think it will end up grossing anywhere near as much as Help but if it receives some Academy Award Nominations we could see it end up grossing around the $30-$35million range.

I think “Contagion” will end up holding onto the top spot this weekend. There’s three new movies that open up but the only one that could possibly beat it is “Drive”. Unfortunately I think that movie could end up similar to where “Warrior” opened up with last weekend. Despite positive reviews and good word of mouth I think it will have a hard time playing to mass audiences.

Here’s what I think the top five will look like this weekend.

Weekend Prediction – $5million
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

#4 – The Help
Weekend Prediction - $5.7million
Gross to Date – $140.9million (Week 6)

#3 – Straw Dogs
Weekend Prediction - $6.8million
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

#2 – Drive
Weekend Prediction - $8.9million
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

#1 – Contagion
Weekend Prediction - $12.5million
Gross to Date - $29.7million (Week 2)

Avoid Like the Plague
I almost picked the remake of “Straw Dogs” since they’re marketing it as some kind of horror movie but I decided to go with the obvious pick here because I would rather watch a bad remake than a Sarah Jessica Parker movie. I know there’s a market for it but I don’t need to go see a movie where we’re hit over the head with how “great” Sarah Jessica Parker is. Yes we all know that wives and mother’s do great things everyday while juggling careers but this doesn’t look entertaining in anyway.

Best Bet
I hope people go out and support “Drive” this weekend. I’ve written about this movie already and placed it as #6 on my list of the top fall movies to check out. It’s currently sitting at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. I really want this to make more money than “I Don’t Know How She Does It”. Guys, if you’re trying to convince the wife or a girlfriend to go see this just say that Ryan Gosling takes his shirt off in this movie. I don’t know if he really does but it seemed to help with “Crazy, Stupid. Love”.

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