Friday, August 19, 2011

Box Office Forecaster - 08/19/11

Wow, I was off just a bit on “The Help” last weekend. I had predicted a $53 million opening and it ended up grossing about half of that with $26 million. That reminded me of my ill-fated “Cowboys & Aliens” opening weekend prediction of $73 million.
What can I say, I thought both movies were going to be huge. Although, I think that “The Help” will have better legs and should end up with a decent haul when all is said and done. Speaking of which, I think it’s safe to assume that “Cowboys & Aliens” is a bomb. After it’s first 20 days the movie has made just over $84 million so far. That’s not bad for the average movie but when you’re budget is $163 million that’s got to be a huge disappointment since most people were predicting it to be one of the top movies this summer.
This weekend see’s the release of four movies and you can tell that we’re getting near the end of summer as the releases are getting more questionable. The good news is we don’t have anymore 3D concert movies this week but we do have some 4D.
Without further ado, here’s your estimated top 5 movies this weekend.
Weekend Prediction - $15 million
Gross to Date – (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $15.3 million
Gross to Date - $114.9 Million (Week 3)

Weekend Prediction - $15.4 million
Gross to Date - $47.7 million (Week 2)

Weekend Prediction - $21 million
Gross to Date - (Week 1)

Weekend Prediction - $25 million
Gross to Date - (Week 1)

Avoid like the Plague
If it was a hit last weekend I was going to say the Glee 3D concert movie once again. But thankfully the general public avoided it anyhow ($5.9 million opening weekend). I was really debating about this weekend’s dud. I almost picked Spy Kids 4 but then I remembered that I normally like Robert Rodriguez movies and I’d like to see Joel McHale in more movies so I’m ok if it’s a hit even though this one looks just awful. I instead decided to go with “One Day” starring Anne Hathaway with a really bad English accent. I was going to post a link to the trailer but it’s pretty bad and I can’t bring myself to find the clip, watch it again, then post it. I feel for the neutered husbands and boyfriends who will be dragged to this pretentious drivel this weekend. Guys, if you’re looking for a way to get out of seeing it let your female partner know that it’s sitting at a brutal 29% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s right, only 2 out of 10 critics can recommend this movie.  
Best Bet
I’m going with “Fright Night” this week because it’s getting solid reviews (currently sitting at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes) and looks like a fun horror movie. It doesn’t look “Insidious” piss your pants scary but based on early reviews it’s supposed to be fun with some intense gore to satisfy the hardcore horror fans. The other upside to this movie is that unlike other horror movies who tend to have straight to DVD casts (see last weekend’s “Final Destination 5”) this has an all-star lineup with Colin Farrell, Anton Yelchin, Toni Collette, and Christopher “McLovin” Mintz Plasse.  If you’re one of those people who can’t stay away from 3D you’ll be happy to know that the early word is that the 3D effects are terrific on this movie.
What are you seeing this weekend?

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